World premium quantity development forecast under common for 2021 – Enterprise Insurance
Swiss Reinsurance Co. Ltd. on Wednesday forecast global premium growth of 2.8% in 2021 and 3.7% in 2022, which is below the 10-year average of 3.5% in 2021.
In 2020, the commercial sector saw premium growth of 1.5% to $ 3.490 billion, driven by increases in commercial connection tariffs, while total global insurance premiums only contracted 1.3%.
In the US and Canada, commercial premiums rose 1.5%, while China "dominated" emerging market growth with premium growth of 4.4%.
Global insurance demand will grow by a total of 3.3% in 2021 and 3.9% in 2022 as the insurance industry benefits from the robust economic recovery and the "strongest rate hike in 20 years in commercial non-life insurance" after the outbreak of the pandemic, Swiss Re said in its report Wednesday.
The US, China and Japan remained the top three insurance markets in the world in 2020, accounting for nearly 58% of the global market, up from 56% in 2019. The combined market share of the 20 largest national insurance markets increased slightly from 90.5% in 2019 to 90.7% in 2020.
China's growing share of the global insurance market reached 10.5% in 2020 as "the rapidly growing Asian region becomes more and more dominant," said Swiss Re. "We expect emerging markets to continue to outperform advanced markets and Asia to outperform other regions, with the continued shift in economic power from west to east being reflected in the source of global premium growth."
However, uncertainty remains about the total cost of COVID-related claims, which Swiss Re estimates at around $ 30 billion to $ 60 billion.
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